1
84%
Home Win
1.19
X
11%
Draw
8.85
2
5%
Away Win
21.32
xG Home
2.79
xG Away
0.53
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS
39%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Sporting CP an expected 2.8 goals and Nacional an expected 0.5 goals. Sporting CP have a 84% win probability, draw stands at 11%, and Nacional at 5%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 64%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
14.1%
3:0
13.1%
1:0
10.1%
4:0
9.1%
2:1
7.5%
3:1
6.9%
1:1
5.3%
4:1
4.8%
0:0
3.6%
2:2
2%
0:1
1.9%
3:2
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Sporting CP Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 84% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.19 |
| Market Odds | 1.27 |
Team Comparison
| Sporting CP | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 14 |
| 82 | Points | 34 |
| 74% | Win % | 26% |
| 2.62 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.09 |
| 0.71 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Sporting CP at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Nacional Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Sporting CP
W
D
L
Nacional
L
W
