1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.56
xG Away
1.46
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS
61%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Alverca an expected 1.6 goals and Arouca an expected 1.5 goals. Alverca have a 40% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Arouca at 36%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.1%
2:1
8.7%
1:2
8.1%
1:0
7.6%
0:1
7.1%
2:2
6.3%
2:0
5.9%
0:2
5.2%
0:0
4.9%
3:1
4.5%
1:3
3.9%
3:2
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Alverca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 40% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.5 |
| Market Odds | 2.66 |
Team Comparison
| Alverca | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 8 |
| 39 | Points | 42 |
| 29% | Win % | 35% |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.38 |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.88 |
Venue Form
Alverca at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Arouca Away
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
Recent Form
Alverca
D
W
Arouca
D
W
L
L
