1
72%
Home Win
1.39
X
16%
Draw
6.3
2
12%
Away Win
8.37
xG Home
2.61
xG Away
0.98
Over 2.5 Goals
69%
BTTS
58%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Real Madrid an expected 2.6 goals and Real Sociedad an expected 1.0 goals. Real Madrid have a 72% win probability, draw stands at 16%, and Real Sociedad at 12%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 69%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
9.4%
2:1
9.2%
3:0
8.2%
3:1
8%
1:0
7.2%
1:1
7.1%
4:0
5.3%
4:1
5.2%
2:2
4.5%
3:2
3.9%
1:2
3.5%
0:0
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Real Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 72% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.39 |
| Market Odds | 1.48 |
Team Comparison
| Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 10 |
| 86 | Points | 46 |
| 71% | Win % | 29% |
| 2.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.55 |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.61 |
Venue Form
Real Madrid at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Real Sociedad Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Real Madrid
W
W
Real Sociedad
D
L
D
