1
45%
Home Win
2.24
X
29%
Draw
3.5
2
27%
Away Win
3.72
xG Home
1.27
xG Away
0.92
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Rayo Vallecano an expected 1.3 goals and Alavés an expected 0.9 goals. Rayo Vallecano have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Alavés at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
14.2%
1:1
13.1%
0:0
11.1%
0:1
10.3%
2:0
9%
2:1
8.3%
1:2
6%
0:2
4.7%
3:0
3.8%
2:2
3.8%
3:1
3.5%
1:3
1.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Rayo Vallecano Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Rayo Vallecano | Alavés | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 14 |
| 50 | Points | 43 |
| 32% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.16 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.47 |
Venue Form
Rayo Vallecano at Home
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Alavés Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano
D
D
W
Alavés
D
L
