1
56%
Home Win
1.8
X
19%
Draw
5.19
2
25%
Away Win
3.98
xG Home
2.41
xG Away
1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
76%
BTTS
73%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Estoril an expected 2.4 goals and Arouca an expected 1.6 goals. Estoril have a 56% win probability, draw stands at 19%, and Arouca at 25%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 76%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:1
8.4%
1:1
7%
3:1
6.8%
2:2
6.7%
1:2
5.6%
3:2
5.4%
2:0
5.3%
1:0
4.4%
3:0
4.2%
4:1
4.1%
2:3
3.6%
4:2
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Estoril Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 56% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.79 |
| Market Odds | 1.9 |
Team Comparison
| Estoril | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | League Position | 8 |
| 39 | Points | 42 |
| 29% | Win % | 35% |
| 1.59 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.38 |
| 1.68 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.88 |
Venue Form
Estoril at Home
W0
D0
L1
(1 games)
Arouca Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Estoril
L
Arouca
W
L
L
