1
15%
Home Win
6.82
X
20%
Draw
4.89
2
65%
Away Win
1.54
xG Home
0.84
xG Away
2.02
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Espanyol an expected 0.8 goals and Real Madrid an expected 2.0 goals. Espanyol have a 15% win probability, draw stands at 20%, and Real Madrid at 65%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–2. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:2
11.7%
0:1
11.6%
1:2
9.8%
1:1
9.7%
0:3
7.9%
1:3
6.6%
0:0
5.8%
1:0
4.8%
2:2
4.1%
2:1
4.1%
0:4
4%
1:4
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Real Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 65% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.54 |
| Market Odds | 1.64 |
Team Comparison
| Espanyol | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | League Position | 2 |
| 46 | Points | 86 |
| 32% | Win % | 71% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.03 |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
Venue Form
Espanyol at Home
W1
D1
L2
(4 games)
Real Madrid Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Espanyol
W
L
D
L
Real Madrid
L
W
D
