1
16%
Home Win
6.15
X
20%
Draw
4.95
2
64%
Away Win
1.57
xG Home
0.95
xG Away
2.09
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
54%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Elche an expected 1.0 goals and Real Madrid an expected 2.1 goals. Elche have a 16% win probability, draw stands at 20%, and Real Madrid at 64%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–2. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:2
10.4%
0:1
10%
1:2
9.9%
1:1
9.5%
0:3
7.3%
1:3
6.9%
0:0
4.8%
2:2
4.7%
1:0
4.6%
2:1
4.5%
0:4
3.8%
1:4
3.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Real Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 64% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.56 |
| Market Odds | 1.66 |
Team Comparison
| Elche | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | League Position | 2 |
| 43 | Points | 86 |
| 26% | Win % | 71% |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.03 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
Venue Form
Elche at Home
W2
D1
L1
(4 games)
Real Madrid Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Elche
L
D
W
W
Real Madrid
L
W
D
