1
50%
Home Win
2.01
X
23%
Draw
4.4
2
27%
Away Win
3.64
xG Home
1.85
xG Away
1.32
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS
62%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Barcelona an expected 1.8 goals and Real Madrid an expected 1.3 goals. Barcelona have a 50% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Real Madrid at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.3%
2:1
9.5%
1:0
7.8%
2:0
7.2%
1:2
6.8%
2:2
6.3%
3:1
5.8%
0:1
5.6%
3:0
4.4%
0:0
4.2%
3:2
3.8%
0:2
3.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Barcelona Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 50% |
| Predicted Odds | 2 |
| Market Odds | 2.13 |
Team Comparison
| Barcelona | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 2 |
| 94 | Points | 86 |
| 82% | Win % | 71% |
| 2.5 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.03 |
| 0.95 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
Venue Form
Barcelona at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Real Madrid Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Barcelona
W
W
Real Madrid
L
W
D
