1
74%
Home Win
1.36
X
17%
Draw
6
2
10%
Away Win
10.45
xG Home
2.32
xG Away
0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Barcelona an expected 2.3 goals and Rayo Vallecano an expected 0.7 goals. Barcelona have a 74% win probability, draw stands at 17%, and Rayo Vallecano at 10%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
13.1%
1:0
11.3%
3:0
10.1%
2:1
9.2%
1:1
7.9%
3:1
7.1%
4:0
5.9%
0:0
4.9%
4:1
4.1%
0:1
3.4%
2:2
3.2%
1:2
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Barcelona Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 74% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.35 |
| Market Odds | 1.44 |
Team Comparison
| Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 8 |
| 94 | Points | 50 |
| 82% | Win % | 32% |
| 2.5 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.08 |
| 0.95 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
Venue Form
Barcelona at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Rayo Vallecano Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Barcelona
W
W
Rayo Vallecano
D
W
