1
40%
Home Win
2.52
X
24%
Draw
4.19
2
36%
Away Win
2.75
xG Home
1.58
xG Away
1.51
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS
62%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Atlético Madrid an expected 1.6 goals and Villarreal an expected 1.5 goals. Atlético Madrid have a 40% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Villarreal at 36%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.9%
2:1
8.6%
1:2
8.2%
1:0
7.2%
0:1
6.9%
2:2
6.5%
2:0
5.7%
0:2
5.2%
0:0
4.5%
3:1
4.5%
1:3
4.1%
3:2
3.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Atlético Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 40% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.5 |
| Market Odds | 2.66 |
Team Comparison
| Atlético Madrid | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 3 |
| 69 | Points | 72 |
| 55% | Win % | 58% |
| 1.63 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.89 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Atlético Madrid at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Villarreal Away
W0
D2
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Atlético Madrid
L
W
Villarreal
D
D
