1
29%
Home Win
3.5
X
25%
Draw
4.06
2
47%
Away Win
2.13
xG Home
1.20
xG Away
1.61
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
56%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Atlético Madrid an expected 1.2 goals and Real Madrid an expected 1.6 goals. Atlético Madrid have a 29% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Real Madrid at 47%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.6%
0:1
9.6%
1:2
9.4%
0:2
7.8%
1:0
7.2%
2:1
7%
0:0
6%
2:2
5.6%
1:3
5%
2:0
4.3%
0:3
4.2%
2:3
3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Real Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 47% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.13 |
| Market Odds | 2.26 |
Team Comparison
| Atlético Madrid | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 2 |
| 69 | Points | 86 |
| 55% | Win % | 71% |
| 1.63 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.03 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
Venue Form
Atlético Madrid at Home
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Real Madrid Away
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Atlético Madrid
W
L
W
Real Madrid
L
W
D
