1
56%
Home Win
1.78
X
24%
Draw
4.21
2
20%
Away Win
5
xG Home
1.72
xG Away
0.92
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Atlético Madrid an expected 1.7 goals and Osasuna an expected 0.9 goals. Atlético Madrid have a 56% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Osasuna at 20%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
12.3%
1:1
11.3%
2:0
10.5%
2:1
9.7%
0:0
7.1%
0:1
6.6%
3:0
6%
3:1
5.6%
1:2
5.2%
2:2
4.5%
0:2
3%
4:0
2.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Atlético Madrid Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 56% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.79 |
| Market Odds | 1.9 |
Team Comparison
| Atlético Madrid | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | League Position | 17 |
| 69 | Points | 42 |
| 55% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.63 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.16 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
Venue Form
Atlético Madrid at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Osasuna Away
W0
D0
L3
(3 games)
Recent Form
Atlético Madrid
L
W
Osasuna
L
L
L
