1
22%
Home Win
4.55
X
22%
Draw
4.52
2
56%
Away Win
1.79
xG Home
1.12
xG Away
1.92
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
58%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Alavés an expected 1.1 goals and Villarreal an expected 1.9 goals. Alavés have a 22% win probability, draw stands at 22%, and Villarreal at 56%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.3%
1:2
9.9%
0:1
9.2%
0:2
8.8%
1:3
6.3%
2:1
5.8%
0:3
5.6%
2:2
5.5%
1:0
5.4%
0:0
4.8%
2:3
3.5%
1:4
3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Villarreal Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 56% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.79 |
| Market Odds | 1.9 |
Team Comparison
| Alavés | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 3 |
| 43 | Points | 72 |
| 29% | Win % | 58% |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.89 |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Alavés at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Villarreal Away
W0
D2
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Alavés
L
W
Villarreal
D
D
