1
49%
Home Win
2.03
X
24%
Draw
4.2
2
27%
Away Win
3.71
xG Home
1.71
xG Away
1.21
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
BTTS
57%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Utrecht an expected 1.7 goals and Heerenveen an expected 1.2 goals. Utrecht have a 49% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Heerenveen at 27%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 56%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.1%
2:1
9.6%
1:0
9.2%
2:0
7.9%
1:2
6.7%
0:1
6.5%
2:2
5.8%
3:1
5.5%
0:0
5.4%
3:0
4.5%
0:2
3.9%
3:2
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Utrecht Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Utrecht | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | League Position | 8 |
| 53 | Points | 51 |
| 44% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.62 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.68 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.56 |
Venue Form
Utrecht at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Heerenveen Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Utrecht
D
W
W
Heerenveen
L
L
W
Head to Head
Heerenveen
1 : 1
Utrecht
D
Utrecht
2 : 2
Heerenveen
D
Utrecht
2 : 0
Heerenveen
L
