1
33%
Home Win
3.07
X
25%
Draw
3.95
2
42%
Away Win
2.37
xG Home
1.28
xG Away
1.49
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
56%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Tottenham an expected 1.3 goals and Aston Villa an expected 1.5 goals. Tottenham have a 33% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Aston Villa at 42%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12%
0:1
9.3%
1:2
8.9%
1:0
8%
2:1
7.6%
0:2
7%
0:0
6.3%
2:2
5.7%
2:0
5.1%
1:3
4.4%
0:3
3.5%
3:1
3.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Aston Villa Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Team Comparison
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | League Position | 4 |
| 41 | Points | 65 |
| 26% | Win % | 50% |
| 1.26 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.47 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
Venue Form
Tottenham at Home
W0
D3
L0
(3 games)
Aston Villa Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Tottenham
D
D
D
Aston Villa
D
D
L
