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Manchester United vs Aston Villa — Prediction

Manchester United Manchester United
1 – 1
Most likely score (model)
Sun, 08 Nov 2026 · Premier League
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Aston Villa Aston Villa

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
8 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC
Competition
Premier League
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

Manchester United
  • Manchester United 3–2 AS Roma
  • Chelsea 2–0 Manchester United
  • Manchester United 0–3 Bournemouth
  • Leeds 1–1 Manchester United
  • Fulham 1–1 Manchester United
Aston Villa
  • Barcelona 3–0 Aston Villa
  • Aston Villa 1–1 Fulham
  • Bournemouth 3–0 Aston Villa
  • Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City
  • Newcastle United 0–1 Aston Villa
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: Manchester United 9 · Aston Villa 9. Data saved: 2026-11-06 03:30 UTC.

Table season: 2026

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Manchester United 41% · 2026-11-07 00:20 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

Model goal expectation · 1 1.28
Model goal expectation · 2 1.27
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
BTTS 52%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: Manchester United 1.28 · Aston Villa 1.27.
1 37% · X 27% · 2 36%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 12.7%
1:0 10%
0:1 9.9%
2:1 8.1%
1:2 8.1%
0:0 7.8%
2:0 6.4%
0:2 6.3%
2:2 5.2%
3:1 3.5%
1:3 3.4%
3:0 2.7%

About this assessment

Model outcome Manchester United Win
Probability 37%
Predicted Odds 2.7

Team Comparison

Manchester United Aston Villa
17 League Position 10
7 Points 12
11% Win % 33%
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44

Venue Form

Manchester United at Home
W1 D0 L1 (2 games)
50% win rate
Aston Villa Away
W1 D0 L2 (3 games)
33% win rate

Recent Form

Manchester United
W L L D D
Aston Villa
L D L W W

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01

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02

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03

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Are these probabilities a guarantee?

No. A probability describes a model estimate for a particular selection and recording time; the actual match can finish differently.

Why might this page have no related saved forecasts?

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