1
28%
Home Win
3.58
X
29%
Draw
3.42
2
43%
Away Win
2.33
xG Home
0.92
xG Away
1.22
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS
42%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Tondela an expected 0.9 goals and Moreirense an expected 1.2 goals. Tondela have a 28% win probability, draw stands at 29%, and Moreirense at 43%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
14.3%
1:1
13.2%
0:0
11.8%
1:0
10.9%
0:2
8.7%
1:2
8%
2:1
6.1%
2:0
5%
2:2
3.7%
0:3
3.5%
1:3
3.3%
3:1
1.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Moreirense Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 43% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.33 |
| Market Odds | 2.47 |
Team Comparison
| Tondela | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | League Position | 7 |
| 28 | Points | 43 |
| 18% | Win % | 35% |
| 0.79 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.09 |
| 1.62 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.44 |
Venue Form
Tondela at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Moreirense Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Tondela
W
L
Moreirense
L
L
