1
66%
Home Win
1.52
X
21%
Draw
4.75
2
13%
Away Win
7.62
xG Home
1.91
xG Away
0.71
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Toluca an expected 1.9 goals and Necaxa an expected 0.7 goals. Toluca have a 66% win probability, draw stands at 21%, and Necaxa at 13%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
13.9%
2:0
13.3%
1:1
9.9%
2:1
9.4%
3:0
8.4%
0:0
7.3%
3:1
6%
0:1
5.2%
4:0
4%
1:2
3.5%
2:2
3.4%
4:1
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Toluca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 66% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.52 |
| Market Odds | 1.61 |
Team Comparison
| Toluca | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 15 |
| 30 | Points | 18 |
| 47% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.65 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.12 |
| 0.94 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.47 |
Venue Form
Toluca at Home
W2
D0
L2
(4 games)
Necaxa Away
W0
D0
L1
(1 games)
Recent Form
Toluca
L
L
W
W
Necaxa
L
