St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock Prediction

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1 – 1
Most Likely Score
Sat, 09 May 2026 · Scottish Premiership
1 40%
Home Win 2.49
X 28%
Draw 3.61
2 32%
Away Win 3.12
xG Home 1.27
xG Away 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
BTTS 48%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives St. Mirren an expected 1.3 goals and Kilmarnock an expected 1.1 goals. St. Mirren have a 40% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Kilmarnock at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 13.1%
1:0 11.8%
0:1 10.3%
0:0 9.3%
2:1 8.3%
2:0 7.5%
1:2 7.2%
0:2 5.7%
2:2 4.6%
3:1 3.5%
3:0 3.2%
1:3 2.6%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick St. Mirren Win
Probability 40%
Predicted Odds 2.5
Market Odds 2.66

Team Comparison

St. Mirren Kilmarnock
10 League Position 11
30 Points 28
21% Win % 18%
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.97

Venue Form

St. Mirren at Home
W0 D1 L3 (4 games)
0% win rate
Kilmarnock Away
W1 D1 L1 (3 games)
33% win rate

Recent Form

St. Mirren
L L L D
Kilmarnock
D W L