1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.53
xG Away
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
57%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives São Paulo FC an expected 1.5 goals and Vasco DA Gama an expected 1.3 goals. São Paulo FC have a 42% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Vasco DA Gama at 33%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.7%
2:1
8.9%
1:0
8.9%
1:2
7.7%
0:1
7.7%
2:0
6.8%
2:2
5.9%
0:0
5.8%
0:2
5%
3:1
4.6%
3:0
3.5%
1:3
3.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | São Paulo FC Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Team Comparison
| São Paulo FC | Vasco DA Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 14 |
| 51 | Points | 45 |
| 37% | Win % | 34% |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.45 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.58 |
Venue Form
São Paulo FC at Home
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Vasco DA Gama Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
São Paulo FC
W
D
W
Vasco DA Gama
D
L
