1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.36
xG Away
1.01
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Santos an expected 1.4 goals and Chapecoense an expected 1.0 goals. Santos have a 45% win probability, draw stands at 27%, and Chapecoense at 28%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.8%
1:0
12.7%
0:1
9.4%
0:0
9.3%
2:1
8.7%
2:0
8.7%
1:2
6.5%
0:2
4.8%
2:2
4.4%
3:1
4%
3:0
3.9%
1:3
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Santos Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Venue Form
Santos at Home
W1
D2
L1
(4 games)
Chapecoense Away
W0
D2
L3
(5 games)
Recent Form
Santos
D
D
W
L
Chapecoense
D
L
L
D
L
Head to Head
Chapecoense-sc
4 : 2
Santos
L
Chapecoense-sc
3 : 2
Santos
L
Santos
1 : 0
Chapecoense-sc
L
