San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

2 – 1
Most Likely Score
Thu, 10 Sep 2026 · Major League Soccer
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

xG Home 2.53
xG Away 1.32
Over 2.5 Goals 74%
BTTS 67%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives San Diego an expected 2.5 goals and San Jose Earthquakes an expected 1.3 goals. San Diego have a 63% win probability, draw stands at 18%, and San Jose Earthquakes at 18%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 74%.

Correct Score Predictions

2:1 9%
3:1 7.6%
1:1 7.1%
2:0 6.8%
2:2 5.9%
3:0 5.7%
1:0 5.4%
3:2 5%
4:1 4.8%
1:2 4.7%
4:0 3.6%
4:2 3.2%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick San Diego Win
Probability 63%
Predicted Odds 1.59
Market Odds 1.69

Team Comparison

San Diego San Jose Earthquakes
1 League Position 10
63 Points 41
56% Win % 32%
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.85

Venue Form

San Diego at Home
W1 D2 L4 (7 games)
14% win rate
San Jose Earthquakes Away
W3 D2 L3 (8 games)
38% win rate

Recent Form

San Diego
D L L W D
San Jose Earthquakes
L W D L D