1
12%
Home Win
8.4
X
23%
Draw
4.35
2
65%
Away Win
1.54
xG Home
0.57
xG Away
1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
35%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Puebla an expected 0.6 goals and Toluca an expected 1.7 goals. Puebla have a 12% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Toluca at 65%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
17.6%
0:2
15%
0:0
10.3%
1:1
10%
0:3
8.5%
1:2
8.5%
1:0
5.9%
1:3
4.8%
0:4
3.6%
2:1
2.8%
2:2
2.4%
1:4
2.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Toluca Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 65% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.54 |
| Market Odds | 1.64 |
Team Comparison
| Puebla | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | League Position | 5 |
| 13 | Points | 30 |
| 18% | Win % | 47% |
| 0.76 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.65 |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.94 |
Venue Form
Puebla at Home
W0
D0
L1
(1 games)
Toluca Away
W1
D0
L3
(4 games)
Recent Form
Puebla
L
Toluca
W
L
L
L
