1
19%
Home Win
5.19
X
58%
Draw
1.72
2
23%
Away Win
4.41
xG Home
0.30
xG Away
0.34
Over 2.5 Goals
3%
BTTS
8%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Portugal an expected 0.3 goals and Spain an expected 0.3 goals. Portugal have a 19% win probability, draw stands at 58%, and Spain at 23%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 97%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:0
52.5%
0:1
18.1%
1:0
15.7%
1:1
5.4%
0:2
3.1%
2:0
2.4%
1:2
0.9%
2:1
0.8%
0:3
0.4%
3:0
0.2%
2:2
0.1%
1:3
0.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Draw |
|---|---|
| Probability | 58% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.72 |
| Market Odds | 1.83 |
Team Comparison
| Portugal | Spain | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 1 |
| 5 | Points | 7 |
| 33% | Win % | 67% |
| 2 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.67 |
| 0.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0 |
