1
52%
Home Win
1.91
X
37%
Draw
2.74
2
11%
Away Win
8.99
xG Home
0.98
xG Away
0.30
Over 2.5 Goals
14%
BTTS
16%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Mexico an expected 1.0 goals and Ecuador an expected 0.3 goals. Mexico have a 52% win probability, draw stands at 37%, and Ecuador at 11%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 86%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:0
27.7%
1:0
27.2%
2:0
13.4%
0:1
8.3%
1:1
8.2%
3:0
4.4%
2:1
4%
3:1
1.3%
0:2
1.2%
1:2
1.2%
4:0
1.1%
2:2
0.6%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Mexico Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 52% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.92 |
| Market Odds | 2.05 |
Team Comparison
| Mexico | Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 3 |
| 9 | Points | 4 |
| 100% | Win % | 33% |
| 2 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.67 |
| 0 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.67 |
Venue Form
Mexico at Home
W1
D0
L0
(1 games)
Recent Form
Mexico
W
