1
84%
Home Win
1.19
X
12%
Draw
8.03
2
4%
Away Win
26.88
xG Home
2.46
xG Away
0.35
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
27%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Portugal an expected 2.5 goals and Croatia an expected 0.4 goals. Portugal have a 84% win probability, draw stands at 12%, and Croatia at 4%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
18.2%
3:0
14.9%
1:0
14.8%
4:0
9.2%
2:1
6.4%
0:0
6%
3:1
5.2%
1:1
5.2%
4:1
3.2%
0:1
2.1%
2:2
1.1%
3:2
0.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Portugal Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 84% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.19 |
| Market Odds | 1.27 |
Team Comparison
| Portugal | Croatia | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 2 |
| 5 | Points | 6 |
| 33% | Win % | 67% |
| 2 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.67 |
| 0.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.67 |
