Portugal vs Croatia Prediction

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2 – 0
Most Likely Score
Thu, 02 Jul 2026 · World Cup
1 83%
Home Win 1.2
X 13%
Draw 7.79
2 4%
Away Win 26.39
xG Home 2.41
xG Away 0.34
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
BTTS 27%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Portugal an expected 2.4 goals and Croatia an expected 0.3 goals. Portugal have a 83% win probability, draw stands at 13%, and Croatia at 4%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 52%.

Correct Score Predictions

2:0 18.5%
1:0 15.3%
3:0 14.9%
4:0 9%
2:1 6.4%
0:0 6.4%
1:1 5.3%
3:1 5.1%
4:1 3.1%
0:1 2.2%
2:2 1.1%
1:2 0.9%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Portugal Win
Probability 45%
Predicted Odds 2.22
Market Odds 2.36

Team Comparison

Portugal Croatia
2 League Position 2
5 Points 6
33% Win % 67%
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
0.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67

Head to Head

18 Nov 2024 UEFA Nations League
Croatia 1 : 1 Portugal
D
05 Sep 2024 UEFA Nations League
Portugal 2 : 1 Croatia
W
08 Jun 2024 Friendlies
Portugal 1 : 2 Croatia
L