Newcastle United vs Liverpool Prediction

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1 – 1
Most Likely Score
Sun, 23 Aug 2026 · Premier League
1 36%
Home Win 2.76
X 24%
Draw 4.23
2 40%
Away Win 2.5
xG Home 1.53
xG Away 1.62
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
BTTS 63%

Our Prediction

Our Poisson distribution model gives Newcastle United an expected 1.5 goals and Liverpool an expected 1.6 goals. Newcastle United have a 36% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Liverpool at 40%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 61%.

Correct Score Predictions

1:1 10.6%
1:2 8.6%
2:1 8.1%
0:1 7%
1:0 6.6%
2:2 6.6%
0:2 5.6%
2:0 5%
1:3 4.6%
0:0 4.3%
3:1 4.1%
2:3 3.5%

Detailed Analysis

Best Pick Liverpool Win
Probability 40%
Predicted Odds 2.5
Market Odds 2.66

Team Comparison

Newcastle United Liverpool
12 League Position 5
49 Points 60
37% Win % 45%
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.66
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39

Venue Form

Newcastle United at Home
W2 D0 L1 (3 games)
67% win rate
Liverpool Away
W1 D0 L2 (3 games)
33% win rate

Recent Form

Newcastle United
W L W
Liverpool
L L W