1
36%
Home Win
2.76
X
24%
Draw
4.23
2
40%
Away Win
2.5
xG Home
1.53
xG Away
1.62
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS
63%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Newcastle United an expected 1.5 goals and Liverpool an expected 1.6 goals. Newcastle United have a 36% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Liverpool at 40%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 61%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.6%
1:2
8.6%
2:1
8.1%
0:1
7%
1:0
6.6%
2:2
6.6%
0:2
5.6%
2:0
5%
1:3
4.6%
0:0
4.3%
3:1
4.1%
2:3
3.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Liverpool Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 40% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.5 |
| Market Odds | 2.66 |
Team Comparison
| Newcastle United | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | League Position | 5 |
| 49 | Points | 60 |
| 37% | Win % | 45% |
| 1.39 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.66 |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.39 |
Venue Form
Newcastle United at Home
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Liverpool Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Newcastle United
W
L
W
Liverpool
L
L
W