1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.41
xG Away
1.44
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
58%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Newcastle United an expected 1.4 goals and Aston Villa an expected 1.4 goals. Newcastle United have a 37% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Aston Villa at 38%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.7%
1:2
8.4%
0:1
8.3%
2:1
8.3%
1:0
8.2%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
0:0
5.8%
2:0
5.8%
1:3
4%
3:1
3.9%
0:3
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Aston Villa Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 38% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.63 |
| Market Odds | 2.8 |
Team Comparison
| Newcastle United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | League Position | 4 |
| 49 | Points | 65 |
| 37% | Win % | 50% |
| 1.39 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.47 |
| 1.45 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.29 |
Venue Form
Newcastle United at Home
W3
D1
L1
(5 games)
Aston Villa Away
W1
D2
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
Newcastle United
W
D
W
L
W
Aston Villa
W
D
D
L
