1
54%
Home Win
1.85
X
25%
Draw
4.07
2
21%
Away Win
4.69
xG Home
1.64
xG Away
0.93
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS
49%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Napoli an expected 1.6 goals and Bologna an expected 0.9 goals. Napoli have a 54% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Bologna at 21%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
12.5%
1:1
11.7%
2:0
10.3%
2:1
9.6%
0:0
7.6%
0:1
7.1%
3:0
5.6%
1:2
5.4%
3:1
5.3%
2:2
4.5%
0:2
3.3%
3:2
2.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Napoli Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 54% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.85 |
| Market Odds | 1.97 |
Team Comparison
| Napoli | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 8 |
| 76 | Points | 56 |
| 61% | Win % | 42% |
| 1.53 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.29 |
| 0.95 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Napoli at Home
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Bologna Away
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Napoli
L
W
L
Bologna
W
L
Head to Head
Napoli
2 : 3
Bologna
L
Napoli
2 : 0
Bologna
W
Bologna
2 : 0
Napoli
L
