1
43%
Home Win
2.34
X
28%
Draw
3.62
2
30%
Away Win
3.37
xG Home
1.31
xG Away
1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Nacional an expected 1.3 goals and Guimaraes an expected 1.0 goals. Nacional have a 43% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Guimaraes at 30%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13%
1:0
12.4%
0:1
9.9%
0:0
9.4%
2:1
8.5%
2:0
8.1%
1:2
6.8%
0:2
5.2%
2:2
4.5%
3:1
3.7%
3:0
3.6%
1:3
2.4%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Nacional Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 43% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.33 |
| Market Odds | 2.47 |
Team Comparison
| Nacional | Guimaraes | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 9 |
| 34 | Points | 42 |
| 26% | Win % | 35% |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.15 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.5 |
Venue Form
Nacional at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Guimaraes Away
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Nacional
L
W
Guimaraes
L
W
W
