1
46%
Home Win
2.18
X
28%
Draw
3.6
2
26%
Away Win
3.81
xG Home
1.34
xG Away
0.94
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
45%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Nacional an expected 1.3 goals and Alverca an expected 0.9 goals. Nacional have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Alverca at 26%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
13.7%
1:1
12.9%
0:0
10.2%
0:1
9.6%
2:0
9.2%
2:1
8.6%
1:2
6.1%
0:2
4.5%
3:0
4.1%
2:2
4.1%
3:1
3.9%
1:3
1.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Nacional Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 46% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.17 |
| Market Odds | 2.31 |
Team Comparison
| Nacional | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 11 |
| 34 | Points | 39 |
| 26% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.03 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.53 |
Venue Form
Nacional at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Alverca Away
W0
D0
L2
(2 games)
Recent Form
Nacional
L
W
Alverca
L
L
