1
10%
Home Win
10.33
X
18%
Draw
5.6
2
72%
Away Win
1.38
xG Home
0.64
xG Away
2.16
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
42%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Moreirense an expected 0.6 goals and Benfica an expected 2.2 goals. Moreirense have a 10% win probability, draw stands at 18%, and Benfica at 72%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–2. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:2
14.1%
0:1
13%
0:3
10.2%
1:2
9.1%
1:1
8.4%
1:3
6.6%
0:0
6%
0:4
5.5%
1:0
3.9%
1:4
3.6%
2:2
2.9%
2:1
2.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Benfica Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 72% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.39 |
| Market Odds | 1.48 |
Team Comparison
| Moreirense | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | League Position | 3 |
| 43 | Points | 80 |
| 35% | Win % | 68% |
| 1.09 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.18 |
| 1.44 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.74 |
Venue Form
Moreirense at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Benfica Away
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Moreirense
W
W
Benfica
D
W
