1
28%
Home Win
3.56
X
23%
Draw
4.33
2
49%
Away Win
2.05
xG Home
1.31
xG Away
1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS
61%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Manchester United an expected 1.3 goals and Manchester City an expected 1.8 goals. Manchester United have a 28% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Manchester City at 49%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 60%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.5%
1:2
9.5%
0:1
8%
0:2
7.2%
2:1
6.9%
2:2
6.2%
1:0
5.9%
1:3
5.7%
0:0
4.5%
0:3
4.3%
2:0
3.9%
2:3
3.7%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Manchester City Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 49% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.04 |
| Market Odds | 2.17 |
Team Comparison
| Manchester United | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | League Position | 2 |
| 71 | Points | 78 |
| 53% | Win % | 61% |
| 1.82 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.03 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
Venue Form
Manchester United at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Manchester City Away
W2
D1
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Manchester United
W
W
Manchester City
D
W
W
