1
69%
Home Win
1.46
X
20%
Draw
5.05
2
12%
Away Win
8.55
xG Home
2.01
xG Away
0.69
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Manchester City an expected 2.0 goals and Sunderland an expected 0.7 goals. Manchester City have a 69% win probability, draw stands at 20%, and Sunderland at 12%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
13.6%
1:0
13.6%
2:1
9.3%
1:1
9.3%
3:0
9.1%
0:0
6.7%
3:1
6.3%
0:1
4.6%
4:0
4.6%
2:2
3.2%
1:2
3.2%
4:1
3.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Manchester City Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 69% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.45 |
| Market Odds | 1.54 |
Team Comparison
| Manchester City | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 7 |
| 78 | Points | 54 |
| 61% | Win % | 37% |
| 2.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.11 |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.26 |
Venue Form
Manchester City at Home
W4
D0
L0
(4 games)
Sunderland Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
Manchester City
W
W
W
W
Sunderland
D
D
L
