1
71%
Home Win
1.4
X
18%
Draw
5.46
2
10%
Away Win
9.66
xG Home
2.14
xG Away
0.67
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
43%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Manchester City an expected 2.1 goals and Crystal Palace an expected 0.7 goals. Manchester City have a 71% win probability, draw stands at 18%, and Crystal Palace at 10%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 53%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
13.8%
1:0
12.9%
3:0
9.8%
2:1
9.2%
1:1
8.6%
3:1
6.6%
0:0
6%
4:0
5.2%
0:1
4%
4:1
3.5%
2:2
3.1%
1:2
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Manchester City Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 71% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.41 |
| Market Odds | 1.5 |
Team Comparison
| Manchester City | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 15 |
| 78 | Points | 45 |
| 61% | Win % | 29% |
| 2.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.08 |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.34 |
Venue Form
Manchester City at Home
W4
D0
L0
(4 games)
Crystal Palace Away
W1
D0
L3
(4 games)
Recent Form
Manchester City
W
W
W
W
Crystal Palace
W
L
L
L
