1
67%
Home Win
1.49
X
19%
Draw
5.38
2
14%
Away Win
6.95
xG Home
2.26
xG Away
0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS
55%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Manchester City an expected 2.3 goals and Bournemouth an expected 0.9 goals. Manchester City have a 67% win probability, draw stands at 19%, and Bournemouth at 14%. The most likely exact scoreline is 2–0. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
2:0
10.3%
2:1
9.8%
1:0
9.1%
1:1
8.7%
3:0
7.8%
3:1
7.4%
2:2
4.6%
4:0
4.4%
4:1
4.2%
1:2
4.1%
0:0
4%
0:1
3.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Manchester City Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 67% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.49 |
| Market Odds | 1.59 |
Team Comparison
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | League Position | 6 |
| 78 | Points | 57 |
| 61% | Win % | 34% |
| 2.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.42 |
Venue Form
Manchester City at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Bournemouth Away
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Manchester City
W
W
W
Bournemouth
W
W