1
44%
Home Win
2.27
X
25%
Draw
3.92
2
30%
Away Win
3.29
xG Home
1.50
xG Away
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
54%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Manchester City an expected 1.5 goals and Aston Villa an expected 1.2 goals. Manchester City have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Aston Villa at 30%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 51%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.1%
1:0
10.1%
2:1
9.1%
0:1
8.1%
2:0
7.6%
1:2
7.3%
0:0
6.7%
2:2
5.4%
0:2
4.8%
3:1
4.5%
3:0
3.8%
1:3
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Manchester City Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 45% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.22 |
| Market Odds | 2.36 |
Team Comparison
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | League Position | 0 |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
Venue Form
Manchester City at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Aston Villa Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Manchester City
W
W
W
Aston Villa
D
L
Head to Head
Aston Villa
1 : 0
Manchester City
L
Manchester City
2 : 1
Aston Villa
L
Aston Villa
2 : 1
Manchester City
L