1
46%
Home Win
2.18
X
23%
Draw
4.35
2
31%
Away Win
3.22
xG Home
1.78
xG Away
1.43
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS
63%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Liverpool an expected 1.8 goals and Chelsea an expected 1.4 goals. Liverpool have a 46% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Chelsea at 31%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.3%
2:1
9.1%
1:2
7.3%
1:0
7.2%
2:2
6.5%
2:0
6.4%
0:1
5.8%
3:1
5.4%
0:2
4.1%
0:0
4%
3:2
3.9%
3:0
3.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Liverpool Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 46% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.17 |
| Market Odds | 2.31 |
Team Comparison
| Liverpool | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 10 |
| 60 | Points | 52 |
| 45% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.66 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 1.39 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
Venue Form
Liverpool at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Chelsea Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Liverpool
D
W
Chelsea
L
D
L
Head to Head
Liverpool
1 : 1
Chelsea
D
Chelsea
2 : 1
Liverpool
L
Chelsea
3 : 1
Liverpool
L
