1
39%
Home Win
2.54
X
25%
Draw
4
2
36%
Away Win
2.8
xG Home
1.47
xG Away
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
58%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Leeds an expected 1.5 goals and Newcastle United an expected 1.4 goals. Leeds have a 39% win probability, draw stands at 25%, and Newcastle United at 36%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 54%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11.7%
2:1
8.6%
1:0
8.5%
1:2
8.1%
0:1
8%
2:0
6.2%
2:2
6%
0:0
5.8%
0:2
5.5%
3:1
4.2%
1:3
3.7%
3:0
3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Leeds Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 39% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.56 |
| Market Odds | 2.73 |
Team Comparison
| Leeds | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | League Position | 12 |
| 47 | Points | 49 |
| 29% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.39 |
| 1.47 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.45 |
Venue Form
Leeds at Home
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Newcastle United Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Leeds
W
W
Newcastle United
D
L
