1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.88
xG Away
1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS
58%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Heerenveen an expected 1.9 goals and Excelsior an expected 1.1 goals. Heerenveen have a 54% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Excelsior at 23%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.5%
2:1
9.8%
1:0
9.1%
2:0
8.5%
3:1
6.1%
1:2
6%
2:2
5.6%
0:1
5.6%
3:0
5.3%
0:0
4.8%
3:2
3.5%
0:2
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Heerenveen Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 54% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.85 |
| Market Odds | 1.97 |
Team Comparison
| Heerenveen | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | League Position | 13 |
| 51 | Points | 38 |
| 41% | Win % | 29% |
| 1.68 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.26 |
| 1.56 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.65 |
Venue Form
Heerenveen at Home
W1
D1
L0
(2 games)
Excelsior Away
W1
D2
L1
(4 games)
Recent Form
Heerenveen
D
W
Excelsior
L
D
D
W
