1
51%
Home Win
1.95
X
26%
Draw
3.91
2
23%
Away Win
4.34
xG Home
1.55
xG Away
0.94
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Guimaraes an expected 1.5 goals and Casa Pia AC an expected 0.9 goals. Guimaraes have a 51% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Casa Pia AC at 23%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
12.8%
1:1
12.1%
2:0
9.9%
2:1
9.4%
0:0
8.3%
0:1
7.8%
1:2
5.7%
3:0
5.1%
3:1
4.8%
2:2
4.4%
0:2
3.7%
3:2
2.3%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Guimaraes Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 51% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.96 |
| Market Odds | 2.09 |
Team Comparison
| Guimaraes | Casa Pia AC | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 16 |
| 42 | Points | 30 |
| 35% | Win % | 18% |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.91 |
| 1.5 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.68 |
Venue Form
Guimaraes at Home
W1
D0
L1
(2 games)
Casa Pia AC Away
W1
D0
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Guimaraes
L
W
Casa Pia AC
W
L
L
