1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.18
xG Away
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS
52%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Groningen an expected 1.2 goals and Ajax an expected 1.4 goals. Groningen have a 32% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Ajax at 42%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 52%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.5%
0:1
10.6%
1:0
8.9%
1:2
8.8%
0:0
7.5%
0:2
7.4%
2:1
7.4%
2:0
5.2%
2:2
5.2%
1:3
4.1%
0:3
3.5%
3:1
2.9%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Ajax Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 42% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.38 |
| Market Odds | 2.53 |
Team Comparison
| Groningen | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 5 |
| 48 | Points | 56 |
| 41% | Win % | 41% |
| 1.44 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.82 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
Groningen at Home
W2
D0
L1
(3 games)
Ajax Away
W2
D0
L0
(2 games)
Recent Form
Groningen
W
W
L
Ajax
W
W
