1
44%
Home Win
2.27
X
24%
Draw
4.21
2
32%
Away Win
3.11
xG Home
1.67
xG Away
1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS
61%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Gremio an expected 1.7 goals and Vasco DA Gama an expected 1.4 goals. Gremio have a 44% win probability, draw stands at 24%, and Vasco DA Gama at 32%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 59%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
10.9%
2:1
9.1%
1:0
7.8%
1:2
7.6%
0:1
6.5%
2:0
6.5%
2:2
6.3%
3:1
5.1%
0:0
4.6%
0:2
4.5%
3:0
3.6%
1:3
3.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Gremio Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 44% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.27 |
| Market Odds | 2.42 |
Team Comparison
| Gremio | Vasco DA Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | League Position | 14 |
| 49 | Points | 45 |
| 34% | Win % | 34% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.45 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.58 |
Venue Form
Gremio at Home
W1
D1
L1
(3 games)
Vasco DA Gama Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Gremio
L
W
D
Vasco DA Gama
D
L
