1
53%
Home Win
1.87
X
23%
Draw
4.29
2
23%
Away Win
4.31
xG Home
1.78
xG Away
1.09
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS
55%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Fluminense an expected 1.8 goals and Vasco DA Gama an expected 1.1 goals. Fluminense have a 53% win probability, draw stands at 23%, and Vasco DA Gama at 23%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 55%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
11%
1:0
10.1%
2:1
9.8%
2:0
9%
0:1
6.2%
1:2
6%
3:1
5.8%
0:0
5.7%
2:2
5.3%
3:0
5.3%
0:2
3.4%
3:2
3.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Fluminense Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 53% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.89 |
| Market Odds | 2.01 |
Team Comparison
| Fluminense | Vasco DA Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | League Position | 14 |
| 64 | Points | 45 |
| 50% | Win % | 34% |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.45 |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.58 |
Venue Form
Fluminense at Home
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Vasco DA Gama Away
W0
D1
L1
(2 games)
Recent Form
Fluminense
D
D
W
Vasco DA Gama
D
L
