1
22%
Home Win
4.47
X
26%
Draw
3.88
2
52%
Away Win
1.93
xG Home
0.91
xG Away
1.53
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS
47%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Fiorentina an expected 0.9 goals and Napoli an expected 1.5 goals. Fiorentina have a 22% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Napoli at 52%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%.
Correct Score Predictions
0:1
13.3%
1:1
12.1%
0:2
10.2%
1:2
9.3%
0:0
8.7%
1:0
7.9%
2:1
5.5%
0:3
5.2%
1:3
4.7%
2:2
4.2%
2:0
3.6%
2:3
2.2%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Napoli Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 52% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.92 |
| Market Odds | 2.05 |
Team Comparison
| Fiorentina | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | League Position | 2 |
| 42 | Points | 76 |
| 24% | Win % | 61% |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.95 |
Venue Form
Fiorentina at Home
W1
D3
L1
(5 games)
Napoli Away
W0
D1
L2
(3 games)
Recent Form
Fiorentina
L
D
D
D
W
Napoli
L
D
L
