1
41%
Home Win
2.43
X
28%
Draw
3.62
2
31%
Away Win
3.21
xG Home
1.29
xG Away
1.08
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
48%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Fiorentina an expected 1.3 goals and Genoa an expected 1.1 goals. Fiorentina have a 41% win probability, draw stands at 28%, and Genoa at 31%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
10.1%
0:0
9.3%
2:1
8.4%
2:0
7.7%
1:2
7.1%
0:2
5.5%
2:2
4.5%
3:1
3.6%
3:0
3.3%
1:3
2.5%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Fiorentina Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 41% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.44 |
| Market Odds | 2.59 |
Team Comparison
| Fiorentina | Genoa | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | League Position | 16 |
| 42 | Points | 41 |
| 24% | Win % | 26% |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.08 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.34 |
Venue Form
Fiorentina at Home
W1
D3
L1
(5 games)
Genoa Away
W1
D2
L0
(3 games)
Recent Form
Fiorentina
L
D
D
D
W
Genoa
D
D
W
