1
75%
Home Win
1.33
X
19%
Draw
5.27
2
6%
Away Win
16.89
xG Home
1.88
xG Away
0.34
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS
25%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives FC Porto an expected 1.9 goals and Santa Clara an expected 0.3 goals. FC Porto have a 75% win probability, draw stands at 19%, and Santa Clara at 6%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–0. Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:0
20.3%
2:0
19.1%
3:0
12%
0:0
10.8%
1:1
7%
2:1
6.6%
4:0
5.7%
3:1
4.1%
0:1
3.7%
4:1
1.9%
1:2
1.2%
2:2
1.1%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | FC Porto Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 75% |
| Predicted Odds | 1.33 |
| Market Odds | 1.42 |
Team Comparison
| FC Porto | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Position | 13 |
| 88 | Points | 36 |
| 82% | Win % | 26% |
| 1.94 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.94 |
| 0.53 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.21 |
Venue Form
FC Porto at Home
W3
D0
L0
(3 games)
Santa Clara Away
W0
D2
L1
(3 games)
Recent Form
FC Porto
W
W
W
Santa Clara
D
D
L
