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FC Porto vs Napoli — Prediction

FC Porto FC Porto
0 – 1
Most likely score (model)
Wed, 04 Nov 2026 · Champions League
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Napoli Napoli

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
4 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC
Competition
Champions League
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

FC Porto
  • FC Porto 4–0 Estoril
  • GIL Vicente 0–1 FC Porto
  • FC Porto 3–1 Benfica
  • Casa Pia AC 1–4 FC Porto
  • FC Porto 0–2 Manchester City
Napoli
  • Juventus 2–0 Napoli
  • Monza 1–4 Napoli
  • Napoli 3–3 AS Roma
  • Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli
  • Napoli 1–0 Bologna
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: FC Porto 3 · Napoli 3. Data saved: 2026-11-03 21:50 UTC.

Table season: 2026

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Napoli 56% · 2026-11-03 22:10 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

Model goal expectation · 1 0.87
Model goal expectation · 2 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
BTTS 46%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: FC Porto 0.87 · Napoli 1.60.
1 20% · X 25% · 2 55%.

Correct Score Predictions

0:1 13.5%
1:1 11.8%
0:2 10.8%
1:2 9.4%
0:0 8.4%
1:0 7.4%
0:3 5.8%
2:1 5.1%
1:3 5%
2:2 4.1%
2:0 3.2%
0:4 2.3%

About this assessment

Model outcome Napoli Win
Probability 55%
Predicted Odds 1.82

Team Comparison

FC Porto Napoli
35 League Position 24
0 Points 3
0% Win % 33%
0.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
2 Avg Goals Conceded 2.33

Venue Form

FC Porto at Home
W2 D0 L1 (3 games)
67% win rate
Napoli Away
W1 D1 L1 (3 games)
33% win rate

Recent Form

FC Porto
W W W W L
Napoli
L W D D W

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