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AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid — Prediction

AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
0 – 4
Most likely score (model)
Wed, 04 Nov 2026 · Champions League
Open Match Centre
Score · Lineups · Live stats
Real Madrid Real Madrid

Match information

Scheduled
Kickoff
4 Nov 2026, 17:45 UTC
Competition
Champions League
Previous matches

All competitions; results strictly before this fixture. The recorded score may include extra time; shootout goals are not added.

AEK Athens FC
  • Panathinaikos 2–0 AEK Athens FC
  • AEK Athens FC 5–0 Panetolikos
  • Volos NFC 1–2 AEK Athens FC
  • Asteras Tripolis 1–1 AEK Athens FC
  • AEK Athens FC 1–0 LASK Linz
Real Madrid
  • Racing Santander 0–3 Real Madrid
  • Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid
  • Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla FC
  • Atlético Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid
  • Elche 2–3 Real Madrid
Model & data

Table-based model estimate

Matches in saved table: AEK Athens FC 3 · Real Madrid 3. Data saved: 2026-11-03 21:50 UTC.

Table season: 2026

This Poisson estimate uses goals scored and conceded per game in the saved league table. Home advantage is 1.08; goal rates are limited to 0.3–5.0.

Model goal expectation is not measured shot-based xG. Injuries, confirmed lineups and live match state are not inputs to this calculation.

Assessment recorded before kickoff: Real Madrid 75% · 2026-11-03 22:10 UTC.

An estimate is not a guarantee of the result.

Lineups, events, odds and statistics depend on provider coverage. Missing data is not a zero value.

1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ

Model goal expectation · 1 0.93
Model goal expectation · 2 4.27
Over 2.5 Goals 89%
BTTS 60%

Table-based model estimate

Model goal expectation: AEK Athens FC 0.93 · Real Madrid 4.27.
1 3% · X 6% · 2 90%.

Correct Score Predictions

0:4 7.6%
0:3 7.1%
1:4 7.1%
1:3 6.7%
0:2 5%
1:2 4.7%
2:4 3.3%
2:3 3.1%
0:1 2.4%
1:1 2.2%
2:2 2.2%
3:4 1%

About this assessment

Model outcome Real Madrid Win
Probability 90%
Predicted Odds 1.11

Team Comparison

AEK Athens FC Real Madrid
28 League Position 5
3 Points 9
33% Win % 100%
1 Avg Goals Scored 3.33
2.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67

Venue Form

AEK Athens FC at Home
W2 D0 L0 (2 games)
100% win rate
Real Madrid Away
W3 D0 L1 (4 games)
75% win rate

Recent Form

AEK Athens FC
L W W D W
Real Madrid
W W W L W

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