1X2 model fair odds · Bookmaker prices may differ
xG Home
1.33
xG Away
1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
55%
Our Prediction
Our Poisson distribution model gives Everton an expected 1.3 goals and Chelsea an expected 1.4 goals. Everton have a 37% win probability, draw stands at 26%, and Chelsea at 38%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1–1. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 50%.
Correct Score Predictions
1:1
12.3%
0:1
9.3%
1:0
9.1%
1:2
8.3%
2:1
8.2%
0:0
6.8%
0:2
6.3%
2:0
6%
2:2
5.5%
1:3
3.8%
3:1
3.6%
0:3
2.8%
Detailed Analysis
| Best Pick | Chelsea Win |
|---|---|
| Probability | 38% |
| Predicted Odds | 2.63 |
| Market Odds | 2.8 |
Team Comparison
| Everton | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | League Position | 10 |
| 49 | Points | 52 |
| 34% | Win % | 37% |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.53 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
Venue Form
Everton at Home
W1
D2
L2
(5 games)
Chelsea Away
W0
D1
L3
(4 games)
Recent Form
Everton
W
D
D
L
L
Chelsea
L
L
D
L
